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June’s ADP employment report was a remarkable miss.
Analysts expected the private sector to add 100,000 positions. In reality, private payrolls lost 33,000.
It’s the first negative print since March 2023, although the figure has declined every month since March 2025.
Stocks initially opened lower Wednesday but rebounded later on President Trump’s announcement that the US had penned a trade agreement with Vietnam, fueling optimism that other deals will be struck before the July 9 deadline.
Odds of a 25bps interest rate cut later this month increased to 23.8%, up from 20.7% yesterday. Fed Chair Powell has said time and time again that it’s the data that will determine the timing of the next cut.
Tomorrow, we’ll get the weekly initial jobless claims and the June employment report from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. For initial claims, analysts project 240,000 first-time filers for the week ended June 28. If the figure comes in as expected, it’ll be especially positive for the labor market; signs of increased layoffs will be negative for markets.
The BLS report is expected to show the economy added 110,000 nonfarm payrolls. Unemployment is projected to come in a hair higher at 4.3% vs. 4.2% in May.
Here’s hoping those prints come in more in-line with expectations, but we won’t hold our breath. As a reminder: US markets have an abbreviated trading day on Thursday and will be closed on Friday for the July Fourth holiday.
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