- Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio rebounded off its 365-day SMA, signaling trend continuation if the support holds.
- Price structure remains bullish, but on-chain weakness and rising sentiment risk trend reversal.
Bitcoin [BTC] has stayed resilient above its 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the MVRV Ratio—a historically reliable mid-cycle anchor.
This rebound, which occurred twelve days ago, is now being closely watched as a barometer of bullish continuity.
Naturally, with BTC holding above $108K, the setup signals long-term confidence, provided the ‘MVRV > SMA365’ condition holds.
However, as always, conviction needs to be supported by actual on-chain participation. Price alone cannot carry the momentum.
Are investors taking profits or positioning for more gains?
Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) rose by 2.27%, recording $293 million in net profits by participants. This reflects a moderate round of profit-taking, but not enough to trigger a sell-off.
In fact, such behavior is typical of mid-cycle environments. Traders are locking in gains gradually, without abandoning the broader uptrend.
The absence of large-scale sell-offs shows participants still expect BTC to march higher.
Should falling activity concern Bitcoin bulls?
Here’s where the chart gets tricky.
BTC’s Transaction Count dropped to 85.9K, and Network Growth dipped to 65.8K—both hovering near monthly lows, per Santiment data.
These declines indicate fewer new participants and reduced on-chain interaction. While this could raise red flags, it also suggests that speculative froth has cleared.
Therefore, bulls may interpret this as a reset, not a breakdown. Still, if activity remains low for long, momentum could wane.
For now, price stability despite these weak signals shows a disconnection between adoption and valuation trends.
What about BTC’s hype?
Social Dominance for BTC spiked to 34.92%, its highest point in 2025 so far. This spike revealed growing market attention, often tied to speculative excitement.
However, such spikes have previously marked local tops, especially when not backed by on-chain strength. Therefore, rising attention may be a double-edged sword.
While it drives awareness and inflows, it also increases volatility.
Will price structure and RSI support a breakout?
At press time, BTC held firmly above its 9-day and 21-day EMAs, while RSI hovered around 55, signaling mild bullish momentum.
This setup reflects structural health, as the EMAs provide dynamic support. However, the momentum is fragile.
Price needs to break above $110K and RSI must climb past 60 to attract fresh buyers.
Until then, sideways movement could continue. Still, the EMAs act as a strong base, allowing bulls to attempt another push if sentiment aligns and volume returns.
Source: TradingView
Can BTC keep its bullish bias?
Despite lackluster activity on-chain, Bitcoin’s key structural signals remain intact. Metrics like the MVRV Ratio, EMAs, and modest NRPL gains suggest bulls haven’t lost ground.
That said, falling Transaction Count and rising Social Dominance hint at a fragility beneath the surface.
BTC remains bullish—but not invincible. If volume revives and on-chain participation returns, another leg up may follow. Until then, patience and caution rule the day.
- Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio rebounded off its 365-day SMA, signaling trend continuation if the support holds.
- Price structure remains bullish, but on-chain weakness and rising sentiment risk trend reversal.
Bitcoin [BTC] has stayed resilient above its 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the MVRV Ratio—a historically reliable mid-cycle anchor.
This rebound, which occurred twelve days ago, is now being closely watched as a barometer of bullish continuity.
Naturally, with BTC holding above $108K, the setup signals long-term confidence, provided the ‘MVRV > SMA365’ condition holds.
However, as always, conviction needs to be supported by actual on-chain participation. Price alone cannot carry the momentum.
Are investors taking profits or positioning for more gains?
Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) rose by 2.27%, recording $293 million in net profits by participants. This reflects a moderate round of profit-taking, but not enough to trigger a sell-off.
In fact, such behavior is typical of mid-cycle environments. Traders are locking in gains gradually, without abandoning the broader uptrend.
The absence of large-scale sell-offs shows participants still expect BTC to march higher.
Should falling activity concern Bitcoin bulls?
Here’s where the chart gets tricky.
BTC’s Transaction Count dropped to 85.9K, and Network Growth dipped to 65.8K—both hovering near monthly lows, per Santiment data.
These declines indicate fewer new participants and reduced on-chain interaction. While this could raise red flags, it also suggests that speculative froth has cleared.
Therefore, bulls may interpret this as a reset, not a breakdown. Still, if activity remains low for long, momentum could wane.
For now, price stability despite these weak signals shows a disconnection between adoption and valuation trends.
What about BTC’s hype?
Social Dominance for BTC spiked to 34.92%, its highest point in 2025 so far. This spike revealed growing market attention, often tied to speculative excitement.
However, such spikes have previously marked local tops, especially when not backed by on-chain strength. Therefore, rising attention may be a double-edged sword.
While it drives awareness and inflows, it also increases volatility.
Will price structure and RSI support a breakout?
At press time, BTC held firmly above its 9-day and 21-day EMAs, while RSI hovered around 55, signaling mild bullish momentum.
This setup reflects structural health, as the EMAs provide dynamic support. However, the momentum is fragile.
Price needs to break above $110K and RSI must climb past 60 to attract fresh buyers.
Until then, sideways movement could continue. Still, the EMAs act as a strong base, allowing bulls to attempt another push if sentiment aligns and volume returns.
Source: TradingView
Can BTC keep its bullish bias?
Despite lackluster activity on-chain, Bitcoin’s key structural signals remain intact. Metrics like the MVRV Ratio, EMAs, and modest NRPL gains suggest bulls haven’t lost ground.
That said, falling Transaction Count and rising Social Dominance hint at a fragility beneath the surface.
BTC remains bullish—but not invincible. If volume revives and on-chain participation returns, another leg up may follow. Until then, patience and caution rule the day.
