FTX repayments loom over Solana

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Solana is stalled sideways, with the broader crypto market hitting some light turbulence. SOL is trading at $145.45 midweek, down 2.5% from last Wednesday and now drifting crabwise after a month-long rally that pushed it up nearly 30% from April lows. 

Despite the modest cooling of momentum, Solana continues to print usage at speed. Over the past 30 days, transaction fees have hit an annualized $432.9 million, with SOL burn running at an annualized $216.5 million pace.

Besides macro headwinds, we can probably trace some of the cautious price action to the looming FTX liquidation, where over 60% of the estate’s onchain assets are in SOL. The first wave of creditor repayments is scheduled for May 30 — funded by prior asset sales, including FTX’s March SOL deals — which may still weigh on sentiment even if the tokens themselves are no longer in play. SOL’s market cap has slipped to $75.3 billion, and while 24-hour volume remains strong at $3.49 billion, buyers can’t seem to stop peeking over their shoulders.

The last round of FTX estate unlocks kicked off March 1 — right before a drawdown in SOL’s price, although there were obviously other factors involved. 

Bitcoin, meanwhile, had a little gut punch this morning due to macro. On Wednesday, BTC dropped to $92,910 after US GDP data showed a 0.3% contraction in Q1 — its first in three years. Analysts were quick to cite the sudden impact of Trump’s revived tariff policy, with imports surging and dragging down the GDP print. Stocks sold off, recession chatter kicked up, and bitcoin dipped. As is tradition, the price rebounded within hours to $94,000, buoyed by strong spot demand and resilient ETF inflows, including over $3 billion in net new capital through April 29. 

Last weekend’s Crossroads event in Istanbul allowed the Solana community to take stock of direction. It was a lot of builders comparing notes, investors checking pulse, and variant teams workshopping infrastructure that still has a shot at scaling mainstream demand — lots of honest conversations about payments, gaming, DePIN and the gaps that still need filling.

So far, though, the resulting confidence of those discussions has not translated into price. For now, conviction is expensive. The market is still frozen by what-ifs. What if the market prices in the FTX overhang? What if bitcoin fails to clear $96K and drags everything else with it? What if global retaliation hits US tech exports, and risk assets feel the heat? 

Once these questions have answers, folks will either step up or step aside. And that’s when the market’ll start moving again…ready or not.

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