Macro conditions keep Bitcoin boxed between $100k and $110k, bulls awaiting catalyst

Bitcoin (BTC) is in a “waiting game,” trading between $100,000 and $110,000, with analysts highlighting the need for a macro catalyst to break the top of the channel.

The latest “Bitfinex Alpha” report noted lighter spot activity, softer taker-buy flow, and profit-taking by wallets that had bought below $80,000 in April as the reasons behind the consolidation period.

The report cited spot volume declines and a weaker appetite for futures as signs that the rally from April 9’s $74,634 low has stalled. Exchange data showed $58.6 million in long liquidations and $65.2 million in short liquidations within 24 hours, flushing out leverage on both sides. 

Open interest in perp and dated contracts dropped 7.2% to 334,000 BTC, indicating forced position cuts and a cleaner derivatives landscape. 

The report noted that June corresponds with the close of a historically strong second quarter, with the average return in this period since 2013 standing at nearly 27%. Meanwhile, the third quarter averages only 6%, often with tighter ranges.

Support between $94,000 and $99,000 is still attracting bids, bolstered by the short-term holder’s realized price, which is now nearing $98,779. 

Traders stepped in when the spot price dipped to $98,579 on June 22, lifting the pair to $108,250 after geopolitical tensions eased. 

The report framed the current structure as a “waiting game” in which bulls and bears balance out until fresh demand arrives, most likely from exchange-traded fund flows during US trading hours.

Macro drivers under watch

Nicolai Søndergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, flagged Federal Reserve policy as the primary variable. He noted that the market will likely react positively once the Fed announces rate cuts, adding that risk assets need cheaper funding and better liquidity to attract new capital. 

Søndergaard tracks liquidation heat maps and institutional wallet signals to gauge whether large buyers accumulate or stand aside.

Bitfinex Alpha echoed that view, stating that exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows must accelerate and global liquidity must expand before Bitcoin can clear the upper band of its two-month range. 

Without deeper cash allocations, spot bids fade near $110,000, and sellers cap the price by trimming their positions. 

Still, the report saw no imminent breakdown as long as key support levels hold and structural positioning remains constructive.

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